Event zum Thema "BRICS und Brasilianische Wirtschaft"

Am Donnerstag, den 3. März 2016 finden um 18:00 Uhr in der IHK Heilbronn-Franken in Heilbronn die "Heilbronner Gespräche zur Unternehmensführung – Die BRICS-Staaten: Brasilien" statt. Interessierte sind herzlich willkommen. Die Anmeldung erfolgt kostenfrei auf folgender Website:

https://www.heilbronn.ihk.de/dachmarken/ihkhninternational/idAppointment-1617.aspx

TERMIN: 03.03.2016
UHRZEIT: 18:00 - 21:15
ORT: IHK Heilbronn-Franken
ADRESSE: Ferdinand-Braun-Straße 20
                    74074 Heilbronn
TEL: 07131 9677-0
KOSTENFREI
 

Time to get real – The Commercial Real Estate Industry in Brazil

Having worked with real estate for more than five years in manifold ways, I want to seize this opportunity to present the Brazilian commercial real estate industry to my readers. I have always had a fascination for urban geography and downtown districts with high rise architecture. Commercial properties are vital for everybody of us, because they represent the physical space in which we human beings perform most of our economic activities and spend a large amount of our lifetime.

Basically, commercial real estate encompasses mainly five categories of real estate: office buildings, hotels, retail, industrial properties and logistic properties. In contrast to residential real estate, commercial real estate embraces property types in which various types of economic activities take place. At this, I will primarily focus on office real estate, hotels and retail. 


Commercial real estate à la Brazil

When we talk about commercial real estate and Brazil, one can state that the two megalopolises São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro hold the lion’s share in Brazil’s commercial real estate universe. Taken together, the two states São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro combine more than half of Brazil’s total gross domestic product (GDP). Both of its identically named capital cities are economic hubs for Brazil and South America. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are nodal points of the service sector economy and both have large international airports. This automatically generates demand for all types of commercial properties. Together, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro including their metropolitan areas represent 60% of Brazil’s total office stock which is equivalent to 15 million square meters (m²) of office space. For comparison, the Manhattan office market which is the world's largest office market comprises 47 million m² alone.

The Rochavera Corporate Towers office complex in São Paulo was completed in 2012

Who are the players in the Brazilian real estate game? Generally speaking, the real estate industry is a vast economic sector which comprises several subsectors. These subsectors are: real estate investment, real estate development, real estate financing, construction, property management and real estate brokerage. While the construction sector is rather a part of the secondary sector due to its “industrial” character, the other five subsectors can be associated with the tertiary sector as they offer and sell real estate services. Brazil’s largest construction companies are the following: Odebrecht, Andrade Gutierrez, OAS, Camargo Corrêa und Quieroz Galvão. Their combined revenues make up 42 % of the entire Brazilian construction sector. Their core business is to execute very large construction projects such as roads, airports, seaports and power plants. Besides, the Brazilian real estate industry consists of various corporations the so-called “incorporadoras”. These are multifaceted real estate companies which are active in real estate development, construction, real estate investment and brokerage of both commercial and residential properties. They lay the focus on office and commercial buildings, residential condominiums and shopping malls. The largest and most well-known incorporadoras are Cyrela, Gafisa, BR Malls, Multiplan, PDG Realty, Rossi and MRV.

The Brazilian construction sector is vitally important for the country’s economy. In total, it generates 6.5% of the entire Brazilian GDP. This is an equivalent of USD 153 billion (2014). In total, more than three million people are directly employed in the construction sector. During the years of the last growth cycle, the construction industry played an important role in the Brazilian economic boom. Being a labor-intensive sector, the construction industry managed to absorb a considerable part of workforce and it created a “boom”-atmosphere based on the multiple new constructions which were launched everywhere throughout the country.

When we analyze “the real estate market” we are always talking about submarkets. This is because we basically talk about local real estate markets – e. g. a real estate market of a city or a metropolitan area – rather than talking about a “national real estate market”.

Concentration of Brazil's office markets

How does the Brazilian office real estate sector look like in a nutshell? São Paulo’s total office stock adds up to 8.5 million m² (including Alphaville). The multi-centric São Paulo is characterized by its large variety of office regions such as Centro, Avenida Paulista, Itaim Bibi, Marginal and Jardins. In 2015, the vacancy rate shot up to 20.6% (up from 11.5% in 2014) and the top rents plunged to BRL 126/ m² (this corresponds to USD 32/ m², USD/BRL exchange rate in 2015) down from BRL 185/ m² in 2014. The new office supply in São Paulo accounted for 412,000 m². São Paulo’s trump is its vast area which enables a frequent expansion and relocation of office districts throughout the metropolitan area.

Rio de Janeiro’s total stock of office space amounts 3.5 million m². It is mainly concentrated on downtown Rio de Janeiro (including the new Porto Maravilha) and Barra da Tijuca. The top rents attained BRL 116/ m² in 2015 (down from BRL 280/ m² in 2014). Also in Rio de Janeiro, the vacancy rate soared up and reached 24.3% in 2015 (2014: 13.4%). New office supply added up to 141,900. Basically, the Rio de Janeiro office market is still dominated by the downtown area which makes up 52% of its total office stock. The office stock in the downtown area accumulates a lot of older constructions which were built in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s. The new submarkets Porto Maravilha with its new constructions and developments adds further space for office market expansion to Rio de Janeiro’s limited space. However, due to the present economic downturn, Porto Maravilha currently faces a vacancy rate of 82%.

Of course, other Brazilian metropolises such as Porto Alegre, Brasília and Belo Horizonte also exhibit office real estate markets. However, these markets are much smaller than the office markets in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and are of minor importance particularly from the viewpoint of international real estate investors. International real estate investors basically focus on São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, because those markets represent the most well-known locations within Brazil. Furthermore, the office markets São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro show the highest level of transparency. 

São Paulo is by far Brazil’s most important commercial real estate market

The shopping mall "gold rush"

A true real estate success story of the past 10 years is the Brazilian shopping mall industry. Due to Brazil’s propensity to consumption, the retail sector emerged as one of the key drivers for the Brazilian economy. The number of shopping malls skyrocketed from 281 malls in the year 2000 up to 530 malls in 2015. In the period from 2006 until 2013, the Brazilian retail industry went through the roof with an average revenue growth of 14.65% per annum. As a result, the shopping mall sector grew almost five (!) times faster than Brazil’s total GDP on average. Now we know where all the Brazilian money has gone lately. In total, the Brazilian shopping malls employ 843.254 people and attract 415 million visitors per month. The average Brazilian shopping mall has a size of 26,142 m² of Gross Leasable Area (GLA). More than half of all Brazilian shopping malls (55%) are located in the Brazilian Southeast – which includes the three Brazilian core states São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. While a large amount of the Brazilian shopping malls are located in its major metropolitan areas, there has been a significant growth in small and medium cities in the past six years. Apart from São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, various Brazilian cities became strongholds of the most recent shopping mall boom. These cities are: Porto Alegre, Brasília, Curitiba, Salvador, Fortaleza, Goiânia and Manaus.  
 

Shopping Mall in the Marginal region, São Paulo

 
Demand for hotels in small and medium-sized cities continues

With all its natural beauties, good weather and endless beaches, Brazil has excellent preconditions to be a tourist magnet which could pave the way for a vital hotel industry. As a matter of fact, Brazil attracts a lot of tourists, however these tourists are mainly native Brazilians who spend the holidays in their own country. Merely 6.5 million foreign tourists visited Brazil in 2014. On a global scale, this is a quite moderate amount of foreign visitors, taking into consideration Brazil’s large population of 204 million people. Surely, the 2014 Football World Cup led to a rush on Brazil and spurred the tourism sector revenues. Nevertheless, the Brazilian hotel market is not yet saturated. In 2014, there were approximately 10,000 hotels in operation in Brazil. Taken together, Brazil’s total amount of hotel rooms came to slightly more than 485,000. For comparison: In the same year, Germany had approximately 30,000 hotels with a total of 950,000 rooms and the U.S. had 51,200 hotels with a total of 4.88 million hotel rooms.

In order to find a common ground across different countries, one can observe an interesting ratio for a national hotel market: It is called hotel supply ratio (HSR) and comprises the number of hotel rooms divided by the thousandth part of a country’s total population. The higher the HSR, the more hotel room supply exists within an economy. The lower the HSR, the fewer hotel rooms are available on a national hotel market. Brazil’s HSR adds up to 1.4. In a worldwide context, this is a low HSR and in a Latin American context it is an average HSR. For comparison: While the HSR for the U.S. tops the ranking with 15.5, the UK has an HSR of 8.6. Mexico’s HSR reaches 2.7 and Colombia’s HSR runs up to 0.8. The top ten hotel corporations which are present in the Brazilian market are: Accor, Choice Hotels, Louvre Hotels, Nobile, Blue Tree, Nacional Inn, Wyndham, IHG and Windsor. After all, in the top ten there are four Brazilian hotel groups: Blue Tree, Nacional Inn, Transamérica and Nobile.



Brazil’s vast coastline: There is still demand for a higher amount of hotel rooms



Commercial real estate and the Brazilian economy

How is the present situation of the overall real estate markets across the country? How is the outlook for the Brazilian commercial real estate markets? In the wake of the current economic crisis, the construction sector suffered severe losses due to the economic slump. The largest corruption scandal in Brazil’s history, ineffective economic policies, a lack of investment and a sharp fall in commodity prices have finished Brazil’s most recent boom cycle. And the mega corruption case called “Petrolão” did not spare the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht. Two further major construction companies already filed for bankruptcy. Brazil’s economy is facing a harsh downturn at the moment. According to the CBIC, the Brazilian construction industry association, the workforce in the construction industry shrunk by 15% which corresponds to 300,000 employees who lost their job in 2015.

The Brazilian Real devaluated 50% when you compare the USD to BRL exchange rate in the period from February 1^st, 2015 until February 1^st, 2016. As a consequence of this severe currency devaluation, Brazil was no longer the 7^th largest economy worldwide in 2015. It dropped down two ranks and is now the 9^th largest economy in terms of GDP. Due to the time lag which is distinctive for the real estate sector, economic trends always hit the real estate industry delayed in time. When we take a closer look at the market values of the incorporadoras, one can state that the industry is nearly broke. PDG, Rossi, Helbor and Gafisa lost more than 90% of their stock market value (in USD) within the past 24 months. At the beginning of 2016, the shares seem to have reached a bottom level for the time being.

As mentioned above, the markets for office properties struggles with a rent decrease and an escalating vacancy rate which nearly doubled within one year. During my last visits in Brazil in 2015, I witnessed numerous constructions and real estate developments which came to a halt. Real estate profitability is measured by the capitalization rate (also called “cap rate”). The higher the cap rate, the “cheaper” and the more profitable is the respective property. There is a continuing upward pressure on cap rates which implies that property prices continue their negative trend. At present, an increasing amount of commercial proerties are available for sale. Yet again, all these occurrences prove the cyclical nature of real estate which can be compared to a venturous roller coaster in motion. Ultimately, the current economic crisis leads to a sharp correction of rents and property prices. After the overheated real estate “gold rush” years 2011 and 2012 with double-digit growth rates, the parameters and key figures of the Brazilian real estate sector face now the opportunity to get real and to come into a healthy balance. In defiance of the economic slump, the legendary shopping mall success story of the past 15 years, has potential to continue. While the large Brazilian metropolises are nearly saturated with shopping malls, the small and medium cities (tier 3 and tier 2 cities) still exhibit growth potential for shopping malls. Despite the negative macroeconomic situation, there are still opportunities in the Brazilian real estate universe. The demand for hotel real estate still exists and there are several tier 2 and tier 3 cities in the vast Brazilian inland which offer potential for profitable hotel investments. For now, the industry’s challenge is to overcome the worst economic crisis since 1901 and to attract foreign investment capital again. Apparently, 2016 will be a rough year – but Brazil is experienced with economic volatility. Hopefully, the roller coaster will reach its valley soon so that it can bounce back.

Quo Vadis Petrobras – Quo Vadis Brazil?

Quo Vadis Petrobras – Quo vadis Brazil?

 

It is a fact that Brazil which is South America’s largest economy, faces an economic crisis. The GDP growth attained only 0.15% in 2014, inflation climbed to 8.4% and investment flows gave Brazil a wide berth. Most recently, unemployment figures are rising and added up to 6.4% in April 2015. A strong symbol for the sluggish performance of the Brazilian economy is the status quo of Brazil’s largest corporation – Petrobras. At present, Petrobras is facing the largest corruption case in its history and its shares dropped to a 10-year-low. What happened to Petrobras – which enjoyed a promising outlook back in the years 2009 and 2010? In the following, I will provide a detailed insight into Petrobras’ most recent developments.

Petrobras is by far Brazil’s largest publicly listed corporation. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras employs approximately 85,000 people. The major focus of Petrobras‘ operating business encompasses oil and gas. In total, Petrobras controls more than 135 oil rigs, 15 refineries and the company is operating in 25 countries worldwide. Its oil reserves add up to 16.4 billion barrel. In the peak time in 2007-2008, Petrobras’ market capitalization climbed to US$ 310 billion.

The starting point for Petrobras’ recent boom was the discovering of the promising salt layer (Portuguese: “pré-sal”) oil reserves in 2007. The oil reserves are hidden in ultra-deep waters of the South Atlantic Ocean under a thick salt layer. In November 2007 when Brazil was still ruled by the Lula government, the country witnessed one of the most promising discoveries throughout its history. The government announced the discovery of the Tupi oil field (renamed into “Lula oil field” after the discovery) which is localized in the large oil province called ‘Santos Basin’. Altogether, the Santos Basin has approximately the same size of Germany. Beneath the Santos Basin, in a depth of 5,000 m until 8,000 m below sea level, one of the world’s largest oil reserves is situated. This discovery boosted Brazil’s oil reserve by 50%. At that time, a large wave of enthusiasm caught Brazil which was further propagated by the Brazilian media. Brazil saw itself on the threshold of becoming a new “tropical” Saudi Arabia located on the South American continent. This hype spread to the financial markets as Petrobras market cap went through the roof and reached a level of more than $ 300 billion. For a short period, Petrobras was the fourth most valuable corporation worldwide. Record sales amounting $ 30 billion spurred on the fantastic success story. In 2011, Petrobras drilling rigs managed to pump 71,000 barrels per day out of the pré-sal reserves. On its peak which is expected during the next decade, the pré-sal has the potential to increase Brazil’s oil output from 2.1 million barrel to 3.5 million barrel per day. Everything seemed to be well on the way. However, one year later in 2012 Petrobras’ market cap dropped to $ 130 billion.

In the end of 2012, the enthusiasm of the pré-sal success story began to slowly recede. What has happened in the meantime? Since 2006, the Brazilian government has capped oil prices in order to fight inflation. On account of rising demand a paradox situation arose: Brazil had to import oil and sell this oil at a loss due to the mandatory price cap which was imposed on the oil companies by the government. As a matter of fact, Brazil needs to import a certain amount of oil because the oil produced in Brazil is heavy and sour which means its quality is lower compared to the desired light sweet crude oil (which can be found for instance in Libya, Iraq, Brunei or Angola). In addition, Petrobras was forced by government regulations to build refineries in Brazil’s poor northeast and moreover it was bound to hire and buy parts locally in order to support Brazilian jobs and industries. As a result, Petrobras turned into a plaything of the government and became an all-purpose policy tool. During the bidding process for concessions to explore the pré-sal, most of the multinational oil corporations such as Exxon Mobile, Chevron, BP and BG stayed away. From a total of 40 oil companies which were expected to take part in the auction merely eleven oil companies appeared. Numerous multinational oil companies remained reluctant to bid for a concession in Brazil’s new discovered oil fields on account of the regulations to accept Petrobras as an operator – even if complex offshore operations are their own key strength – and the requirement to contract local companies for equipment and service purchases. The lack in competition due to bureaucratic hurdles repelled various multinational oil corporations. At the same time, shale oil displaced pré-sal as the world’s most exciting energy prospect. Besides, the auction was accompanied by protests which were led by oil workers, unionists and masked anarchists in order to revolt against private sector participation in the oil industry. In the end, a consortium led by Royal Dutch Shell, Total and the Chinese state oil corporation CNOOC acquired the Libra oil field which is located in the Santos Basin. In 2014, the pré-sal oil production accounted for 492,000 barrels per day.

But this is not all. In 2014, the largest corruption scandal in Brazil’s history shook Brazil’s flagship corporation. The so called “Petrolão” scandal (word combination of “petróleo” [Portuguese for “crude oil”] and “Mensalão” which denominates a famous corruption case in Brazil) has broken all records. Approximately $ 3 billion have been stolen from the company. Several contractors which aimed at obtaining orders by Petrobras had to hand back circa 3 % of the volume of orders to the principal. Various high-ranking politicians and top level business leaders have been involved in this corruption case. One of the pivots was Petrobras manger Paulo Roberto Costa who led the purchasing department of Petrobras since 2004. In order to save his own skin, he revealed his participation in the corruption case and he returned his private helicopter as well as his beach villa. All this led to a sharp fall of Petrobras’ share price. Being Brazil’s most influential and distinctive corporation, the decline of Petrobras became symbolic for the overall situation of Brazil’s shaken economy. Within the last 18 months, Petrobras share price oscillated between $ 3.10 and $ 10.90. Currently, it is staggering on a level of $ 4.60. While the revenues remained stable over the past four years, Petrobras’ profits are plummeting. In 2014 Petrobras posted a loss at the amount of R$ 21.6 billion ($ 8 billion). A large part of this loss is made up of the damage from the corruption affair but also it is the consequence of low oil prices as well of the decreased demand for petrochemical products. For the current five-year plan, Petrobras adjusted its planned investments for the upcoming four years which now add up to $ 130.3 billion. This value is 37% below the envisaged amount of investments which Petrobras held out one year ago for the period between 2014 and 2018.

What can be done to overcome this difficult and intricate situation? The following measures and steps are vitally important to get Petrobras back on track:

·         Restructuring of the energy system and the role of Petrobras in the context of the Brazilian oil industry; a single public agency is required which sets policy, negotiates contracts but does not make operational decisions.

·         Remove of the oil price caps   

·         Enhancement of transparency: establishment of a system in which qualified local and international firms compete with Petrobras for contracts and operatorship on equal terms.

·         Change of the local content laws in order to open the market and get the best products and services through international bidding

·         Thorough and diligent solution of the “Petrolão” corruption scandal

It is now in the hands of the Brazilian government and top managers to implement reforms, which will help the Brazilian oil industry to return to its former strength. After the mentioned measures have been accomplished, Petrobras will have the capability to regain trust on the investor side and return to the path of prosperity. This won’t be easy but it is hugely important to lift Brazil’s largest corporation out of the slump. Again, a well-functioning oil industry can stimulate further growth and extend this growth dynamics to its suppling industries.

Looking for a president

Brazil in October 2014 – the sovereign has spoken. The sovereign are the Brazilian people who elect the president this month. In total, 143 million Brazilians are eligible to vote. During the first ballot on October 5, no candidate managed to gain an absolute majority of the votes. In Brazil, the presidential election winner needs either to get an absolute majority which means to attain more than 50% of the votes or to combine more votes than all the opponents together. The incumbent Dilma Rousseff from the Brazilian labor party Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) took 41.4% of the vote. Her opponents Marina Silva from the Brazilian socialist party – Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) and Aécio Neves from the center-right Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) scored 21.3% and 33.8% respectively.

Now, there will be a runoff on October 26 and a thrilling neck-on-neck race is expected between Dilma and Aécio. The latest surveys state that Dilma reaches 52% of the poll ratings and is four percent ahead of Aécio who attains 48% (as of October 20). When taking a closer look at the Brazilian election it makes sense to examine the candidates for the upcoming runoff election. Who are the two opponents that have the same birthplace and hold an academic degree in the same field?

Dilma Rousseff was born in 1947 in Belo Horizonte and has Bulgarian ancestry on her father’s side. As a militant leftist she was actively engaged in the resistance fight against the Brazilian military government in the second half of the 1960s. Therefore, she spent almost three years in prison. Dilma obtained her academic degree in economics at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and started her political career in 1979 when she founded the socialist labor party Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT). In the year 2000, Dilma joined the labor party PT where she held political office under the Lula government as energy minister. As part of the PT party leaders she was officially elected as candidate for the Brazilian presidential elections of 2010. Dilma won the election with an absolute majority and she became the first female president in Brazil’s history. Dilma’s style of government is characterized by subtle foreign policy and technocrat governance. She effectuated tax reliefs with regard to energy and food products. Besides Dilma practices an economic dirigisme because during her presidency the government took control of the central bank and imposed gas price-caps for gasoline on the public oil company Petrobras.

Aécio Neves, born in 1960 in Belo Horizonte was raised in a political family. He is the grandson of Tancredo Neves who was elected president back in 1985 and who died of a disease just before his inauguration. After gaining an academic degree in economics at the Catholic University of Minas Gerais, Aécio started his political career at the age of 23 when he became secretary of his grandfather. Thereafter, he served four terms as an elected deputy in the Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados do Brasil) in Brasília representing the party PSDB. Between 2003 and 2010 Aécio was nominated to become the 17^th governor of Minas Gerais which is Brazil’s third populous Brazilian state. In 2012, Aécio was elected as a candidate for the presidential election for his party. Aécio stands for a more liberal approach and favors a free market economy. Additionally, Aécio Neves has launched several social programs including financial support for high school students, crime prevention as well as fighting corruption during his time in office in Minas Gerais.

Marina da Silva was the initial opponent of Dilma Rousseff. She got outpaced in the first election run as she only managed to get a little more than 21% of the vote. After the tragic accident of the presidential candidate Eduardo Campos who died in a plane crash, Marina was appointed to substitute him as a candidate for the PSB.

Two decades after the adoption of Plano Real – Brazil’s largest and most effective reform program – the country is in a crucial phase of its political and economic development. During the past 20 years Brazil has made a huge step towards political stability, democracy, substantial economic development as well as ongoing social changes. Brazil is the second largest emerging economy in the world just behind China. The president who will be elected this Sunday has a clear task which the Brazilian people expect from him: a continuing economic development, an enhancement of political transparency, actions against corruption and the vigor to shape a socially sustainable and fair nation. Certainly, Brazil has to manage a balancing act. On the one hand, the Brazilian economy needs to get back on track after experiencing an economic blowback as from 2011. The global financial crisis affected the Brazilian economy with a time lag of almost three years because the demand for raw materials decreased with some delay. Brazil’s GDP growth plummeted from 7.5% in 2010 to merely 0.9% in 2012. In order to grow further, Brazil needs an increased level of investments, massive infrastructure improvements, a reducing of the bureaucracy, an easier tax system as well as lasting reform of the education system. On the other hand Brazil needs a social balance in order to maintain equilibrium of its society which is still characterized by huge income differences. Moreover, a responsible and conscious dealing with its natural resources is important for future generations. The soon-to-be elected president needs to prove skills that he can govern the Latin American regional power. When looking at the Brazilian map, one can notice a geographic rift in terms of candidate preference. While the poorer macroregions North and Northeast are showing a clear preference for Dilma, the economically developed macroregions Southeastern and South exhibit high approval rates for Aécio. Some fear that this election could also turn into a “battle of classes”. While poorer citizens tend to vote for Dilma, wealthier Brazilians are likely to support Aécio.

Undoubted it is not easy to govern a country twice as big as the European Union in size and with the fifth largest population worldwide with more than 200m inhabitants. Definitely, this election will reflect the people’s opinion which path Brazil should choose for the upcoming four years. As a matter of fact, Brazil needs to encounter a “golden mean” between a free market economy and a strong apparatus of state which tries to foster the national economy and strengthens its national industries.  On Sunday, October 26, we will be smarter than today.

Interview veröffentlicht in der Zeitschrift "Tópicos" mit Alexander Gehrmann - Interviewpartner: Paula Katzenstein und Ursula Gostal

Herausgeber: Deutsch-Brasilianische Gesellschaft e.V., Ausgabe 02/2014 
 

August 2014
 

Online verfügbar unter folgendem Link: 

http://www.topicos.de/fileadmin/pdf/2014/2/214_24_katzenstein-gostal_d.pdf

1.  Welche wirtschaftlichen Schwerpunkte/Faktoren werden Brasilien Ihrer Meinung nach zur Weltwirtschaftsmacht führen?

Mit dem Wort „Weltmacht“ sollte man grundsätzlich vorsichtig sein. Eine Regionalmacht in Süd bzw. Lateinamerika ist Brasilien bereits. Außerdem ist Brasilien in der Gruppe der zehn größten Volkswirtschaften vertreten und belegt aktuell Rang 7 hinter Großbritannien und vor Italien, bezogen auf das BIP. Brasilien besitzt das Potential weiter nach oben zu klettern. Zu den wichtigsten strategischen Branchen Brasiliens zählen Eisenerz und Erdöl (Hard Commodities) sowie Agrarrohstoffe (Soft Commodities) im Bereich des primären Sektors. Im Industriesektor gehören die Stahlindustrie, die Lebensmittelindustrie und die Chemieindustrie zu den kompetitivsten Branchen. Die brasilianische Automobilindustrie produziert primär für den Heimatmarkt sowie für andere südamerikanische Staaten. Im Dienstleistungssektor sind die Bankenbranche, der Einzelhandel, Telekommunikation und der Mediensektor die stärksten Segmente. Brasilien ist bereits eine Wirtschaftsmacht, allerdings ist es zugleich ein Schwellenland.

2. Verfügt Brasilien derzeit  über ausreichend fachliche Ressourcen und Know-how, um
    diesen Riesenschritt zu bewältigen?  

Das Bildungssystem wird zunehmend zu einem Schlüsselfaktor für Brasiliens zukünftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Brasilien ist eine Dienstleistungsgesellschaft – mit andern Worten: 67% des BIP werden durch Dienstleistungen erzeugt. Der Dienstleistungssektor (insbesondere das Segment der gehobenen Dienstleistungen) verlangt nach gut ausgebildeten Fachkräften. Das Angebot an Hochschulen hat sich zwischen den Jahren 1999 und 2009 massiv ausgeweitet. Mittlerweile gibt es in Brasilien 6,5 Mio. Studierende. Ein Großteil der Studierenden ist an einer der vielen privaten Hochschulen eingeschrieben. Zum Stichwort Know-How: Die Zahl der aus Brasilien kommenden Patente verharrt weiterhin auf einem niedrigen Niveau. Im Jahr 2010 wurden in Brasilien 488 Patente angemeldet. Im Gegensatz anderen Schwellenländern wie China (12.296 Patente), Indien (1.286 Patente) oder auch Russland (964 Patente), bewegt sich Brasilien damit im unteren Bereich. Auf jeden Fall muss Brasilien weiter in Bildung investieren, um das insbesondere die Bildungsqualität bei Natur- und Ingenieurswissenschaften sowie im Bereich Fremdsprachen weiter zu erhöhen.

3. Kann Brasilien  bei dieser Entwicklung auf die Unterstützung von internationalen     Partnerländern zählen? - Welche würden Sie nennen?”

Brasilien unterhält rege Handelsbeziehungen mit vielen großen Volkswirtschaften wie USA, China und Deutschland sowie mit anderen Staaten Lateinamerikas (v.a. Argentinien, Chile und Mexiko). Zusammengenommen ist die EU der größte Handelspartner Brasiliens. Länder mit einem großen Handelsvolumen geraten im globalökonomischen Gefüge automatisch in eine Aufwärtsspirale. Die großen Wirtschaftsmächte der Erde weisen auch die größten Handelsvolumina auf. Überdies gilt Brasilien geopolitisch gesehen als „sympathische Nation“, die für Multilateralismus eintritt und keine globalen Machtansprüche hegt – ob militärisch oder ökonomisch. Darüber hinaus agiert Brasilien innerhalb mehrerer internationaler Organisationen, wie dem Mercosur, der OAS (Organisation Amerikanischer Staaten) sowie im BRICS-Staatenbund zusammen mit Russland, Indien, China und Südafrika.

4. Was war Ihre Motivation das Buch "Brasilien - Die Samba-Nation auf dem Weg zur Wirtschaftsmacht" zu schreiben?

Mein Ziel war und ist es, dem deutschsprachigen Leser einen lebensnahen Überblick über Brasilien zu verschaffen. Ich wundere mich immer wieder, was für ein oberflächliches Bild viele Europäer von Brasilien haben, welches oft von Klischees geprägt ist. Brasilien ist immerhin die siebtgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt und zudem für Westler eine sehr „zugängliche“ Kultur aufgrund vieler kultureller Parallelen. Ich sehe mich auch als Kommunikator zwischen Deutschland und Brasilien. Detail- und Faktenreichtum in Verbindung mit einer leserfreundlichen Schreibweise haben bei mir oberste Priorität.

5. Wie schätzen Sie die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Brasiliens ein?

Die Jahre 2004 bis 2010 können als die brasilianischen Boomjahre in der vergangenen Dekade angesehen werden, in denen Brasilien im Schnitt mit soliden 4,5 % pro Jahr gewachsen ist. In den Jahren 2011 und 2012 flachte das Wachstum zunächst ab, mittlerweile hat sich das BIP Wachstum aber wieder erholt und beläuft sich für 2013 auf 2,3 %. Derzeit liegt die Inflation mit 6,2 % auf einem relativ hohen Niveau. Mittlerweile weist Brasilien mit 11 % die höchsten Leitzinsen aller OECD-Staaten auf. Mit den hohen Zinsen will die brasilianische Zentralbank die Inflation eindämmen. Abgesehen von leichten Wechselkursschwankungen hält sich der brasilianische Real derzeit recht stabil. Oberste Priorität hat für die brasilianische Regierung die Preiswertstabilität. Brasilien vollführt aktuell einen Drahtseilakt zwischen Inflationseindämmung und staatlich forciertem Wirtschaftswachstum. Man sollte sich von der aktuellen „Wirtschaftsflaute“ auch nicht irritieren lassen. Nach 2,3 % Wachstum kann man in Europa derzeit lange suchen. Im Jahr 2013 flossen 184,9 Mrd. US$ an ausländischen Direktinvestitionen nach Südamerika. 35 % davon – also 65 Mrd. US$ – entfielen auf Brasilien. Laut der brasilianischen Entwicklungsbank BNDES sind bis 2017 1,4 Billionen Euro an Investitionen geplant, die primär in die Bereiche Agrarwirtschaft, Industrie, Wohnungsbau und Infrastruktur fließen sollen. Zudem verfügt Brasilien mit 373 Mrd. US$ über ein gutes Polster an Devisenreserven.

6. Wie wird sich Ihrer Meinung nach die Fußball WM auf Brasiliens Wirtschaft auswirken?

Ein Megaevent wie die aktuell stattfindende Fußball WM oder auch Olympische Spiele – wie 2016 in Rio de Janeiro – können eine positive Impulswirkung für Investitionen haben. Dies gilt vor allem für die Bereiche des Gastgewerbes und des Einzelhandels, aber auch für den Infrastrukturbereich. Zudem kann dies einen Einfluss auf die Außenwirkung bzw. auf das Image eines Landes haben. Eine Garantie für nachhaltiges Wachstum ist ein Großevent jedoch nicht – wie man am Beispielen Griechenland (Austragungsort der Olympischen Spiele 2004) oder Südafrika (Austragungsort der Fußball WM 2010) sieht. Ein Land kann sich nicht allein auf ein Großevent als Wachstumsmotor verlassen.

7. Was zeichnet Brasilien insbesondere aus (im Gegensatz zu anderen Nationen bzw. zu anderen Schwellenländern)?

Große Landressourcen, Naturreichtum, eine offene und willkommen heißende Mentalität, eine junge und dynamische Bevölkerung, eine niedrige Bevölkerungsdichte, eine diversifizierte Branchenstruktur, politische Stabilität sowie demokratische Strukturen. Darüber hinaus befindet sich Brasilien mit seiner Lage in Südamerika in einem geopolitisch ruhigen Terrain. Hier existieren keine geopolitischen Bruchlinien im ethnisch- kulturell bzw. im religiösen Sinne im Gegensatz zu Russland, China, der Grenzregion USA-Mexiko, dem Pazifikbecken sowie in der Peripherie der islamischen Welt. Geopolitisch besteht rund um Brasilien kein Konfliktpotential. Finanzressourcen, die andere Länder ins Militär stecken, kann Brasilien anderswertig auf eine konstruktivere Art und Weise einsetzen. Das ist eine Chance.

8. Wie beurteilen Sie die deutsch-brasilianischen Beziehungen?

Die deutsch-brasilianischen Beziehungen sind sehr gut. Sowohl im wirtschaftlichen als auch im kulturellen Bereich gibt es viele Anknüpfungspunkte zwischen beiden Ländern. Deutschland gehört zu Brasiliens größten Handelspartnern. Die Achse Berlin – Brasília scheint in der jüngsten Zeit wieder an Bedeutung gewonnen zu haben. Deutschland hat sich in den vergangenen 15 Jahren wirtschaftlich sehr stark auf China eingeschossen und Brasilien dabei etwas außer Acht gelassen. Dabei gibt es sehr viele wirtschaftliche Verflechtungen zwischen Deutschland und Brasilien. São Paulo gilt als größter „deutscher“ Industriestandort außerhalb Deutschlands, da im Großraum von São Paulo knapp 1.000 deutsche Unternehmen angesiedelt sind. Die deutschen Unternehmen Siemens, Bayer, BASF und die Deutsche Bank sind seit mehr als 100 Jahren in Brasilien vertreten. Außerdem gibt es viel Sympathie zwischen beiden Völkern. Sogar alteingesessene Klischees vom „typischen Brasilianer“ oder vom „typischen Deutschen“ scheinen sich peu à peu aufzulösen.

9. Welches sind die Chancen und welches sind die Risiken für Brasiliens Volkswirtschaft?

Zu den Chancen zähle ich: eine günstige Demographie, die Kreativität der Brasilianer, Unternehmergeist und Risikobereitschaft in der Bevölkerung, eine vorteilhafte Branchendiversifizierung, stabile politische Rahmenbedingungen und das Potential sich als „Agrarmacht“ im weltwirtschaftlichen Gefüge zu positionieren. Als Hauptrisiken sehe ich: Eine zunehmende private Verschuldung (Konsumentenkredite), erhöhte Inflation, staatliche Eingriffe ins Wirtschaftsgeschehen, ein schleppender Ausbau der Infrastruktur, anhaltende Bildungsdefizite sowie der brasilianische „Bürokratie-Dschungel“.

10. Welche Wirtschaftsbranchen Brasiliens haben Ihrer Meinung nach Wachstumspotenzial?

Die Stahlindustrie, der Tourismus- sowie der Hotelsektor, Wohnimmobilien für die unteren und mittleren Einkommenssegmente, Infrastruktur, der Bildungssektor und natürlich der Agrarbereich. Auch im Automobilbereich gibt es vor allem hinsichtlich des Absatzmarktes noch Spielraum nach oben.

11. Wie würden Sie Ihre allgemeinen Erfahrungen in Brasilien und mit Brasilianern zusammenfassen?

Brasilien ist ein hochinteressantes Land. Seine Größe, die Vielfalt, Naturreichtum, die offene Mentalität und seine dynamische und neugierige Bevölkerung erzeugen einen einzigartigen Kultur-Mix. Ich habe mit Brasilien und Brasilianern überwiegend positive Erfahrungen gemacht. In Brasilien habe ich mich immer sehr willkommen gefühlt. Natürlich gibt es auch die klassischen Schattenseiten, aber unterm Strich überwiegt für mich das Positive.

Dear Visitors of my "Brazil Strategy" blog,

In March 2014, my first book was released to the book market. The title of my book is called "Brasilien - Die Samba-Nation auf dem Weg zur Wirtschaftsmacht". It was published by the publishing company MEDU Verlag and it is written in German language. My book focuses on the profile and structure of the Brazilian economy. At the same time it illustrates the Brazilian society with contemporary culture and lifestyle. The style of writing is authentic, detailed, objetive and casual. My book comprises approximately 400 pages.

It is available for sale on the following websites:

www.amazon.de
www.ebay.de
www.weltbild.de
www.ebook.de
www.medu-verlag.de


All Basic data at a glance:

Title: Brasilien - Die Samba-Nation auf dem Weg zur Wirtschaftsmacht
Author: Alexander Gehrmann
Publishing Company: MEDU Verlag, Dreieich
Genre: Nonfiction
ISBN: 978-3-941955-90-5
Number of pages: 400
Price: € 17,95


Thank you very much for your attention!

Alexander Gehrmann