Looking for a president

Brazil in October 2014 – the sovereign has spoken. The sovereign are the Brazilian people who elect the president this month. In total, 143 million Brazilians are eligible to vote. During the first ballot on October 5, no candidate managed to gain an absolute majority of the votes. In Brazil, the presidential election winner needs either to get an absolute majority which means to attain more than 50% of the votes or to combine more votes than all the opponents together. The incumbent Dilma Rousseff from the Brazilian labor party Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) took 41.4% of the vote. Her opponents Marina Silva from the Brazilian socialist party – Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) and Aécio Neves from the center-right Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) scored 21.3% and 33.8% respectively.

Now, there will be a runoff on October 26 and a thrilling neck-on-neck race is expected between Dilma and Aécio. The latest surveys state that Dilma reaches 52% of the poll ratings and is four percent ahead of Aécio who attains 48% (as of October 20). When taking a closer look at the Brazilian election it makes sense to examine the candidates for the upcoming runoff election. Who are the two opponents that have the same birthplace and hold an academic degree in the same field?

Dilma Rousseff was born in 1947 in Belo Horizonte and has Bulgarian ancestry on her father’s side. As a militant leftist she was actively engaged in the resistance fight against the Brazilian military government in the second half of the 1960s. Therefore, she spent almost three years in prison. Dilma obtained her academic degree in economics at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and started her political career in 1979 when she founded the socialist labor party Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT). In the year 2000, Dilma joined the labor party PT where she held political office under the Lula government as energy minister. As part of the PT party leaders she was officially elected as candidate for the Brazilian presidential elections of 2010. Dilma won the election with an absolute majority and she became the first female president in Brazil’s history. Dilma’s style of government is characterized by subtle foreign policy and technocrat governance. She effectuated tax reliefs with regard to energy and food products. Besides Dilma practices an economic dirigisme because during her presidency the government took control of the central bank and imposed gas price-caps for gasoline on the public oil company Petrobras.

Aécio Neves, born in 1960 in Belo Horizonte was raised in a political family. He is the grandson of Tancredo Neves who was elected president back in 1985 and who died of a disease just before his inauguration. After gaining an academic degree in economics at the Catholic University of Minas Gerais, Aécio started his political career at the age of 23 when he became secretary of his grandfather. Thereafter, he served four terms as an elected deputy in the Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados do Brasil) in Brasília representing the party PSDB. Between 2003 and 2010 Aécio was nominated to become the 17^th governor of Minas Gerais which is Brazil’s third populous Brazilian state. In 2012, Aécio was elected as a candidate for the presidential election for his party. Aécio stands for a more liberal approach and favors a free market economy. Additionally, Aécio Neves has launched several social programs including financial support for high school students, crime prevention as well as fighting corruption during his time in office in Minas Gerais.

Marina da Silva was the initial opponent of Dilma Rousseff. She got outpaced in the first election run as she only managed to get a little more than 21% of the vote. After the tragic accident of the presidential candidate Eduardo Campos who died in a plane crash, Marina was appointed to substitute him as a candidate for the PSB.

Two decades after the adoption of Plano Real – Brazil’s largest and most effective reform program – the country is in a crucial phase of its political and economic development. During the past 20 years Brazil has made a huge step towards political stability, democracy, substantial economic development as well as ongoing social changes. Brazil is the second largest emerging economy in the world just behind China. The president who will be elected this Sunday has a clear task which the Brazilian people expect from him: a continuing economic development, an enhancement of political transparency, actions against corruption and the vigor to shape a socially sustainable and fair nation. Certainly, Brazil has to manage a balancing act. On the one hand, the Brazilian economy needs to get back on track after experiencing an economic blowback as from 2011. The global financial crisis affected the Brazilian economy with a time lag of almost three years because the demand for raw materials decreased with some delay. Brazil’s GDP growth plummeted from 7.5% in 2010 to merely 0.9% in 2012. In order to grow further, Brazil needs an increased level of investments, massive infrastructure improvements, a reducing of the bureaucracy, an easier tax system as well as lasting reform of the education system. On the other hand Brazil needs a social balance in order to maintain equilibrium of its society which is still characterized by huge income differences. Moreover, a responsible and conscious dealing with its natural resources is important for future generations. The soon-to-be elected president needs to prove skills that he can govern the Latin American regional power. When looking at the Brazilian map, one can notice a geographic rift in terms of candidate preference. While the poorer macroregions North and Northeast are showing a clear preference for Dilma, the economically developed macroregions Southeastern and South exhibit high approval rates for Aécio. Some fear that this election could also turn into a “battle of classes”. While poorer citizens tend to vote for Dilma, wealthier Brazilians are likely to support Aécio.

Undoubted it is not easy to govern a country twice as big as the European Union in size and with the fifth largest population worldwide with more than 200m inhabitants. Definitely, this election will reflect the people’s opinion which path Brazil should choose for the upcoming four years. As a matter of fact, Brazil needs to encounter a “golden mean” between a free market economy and a strong apparatus of state which tries to foster the national economy and strengthens its national industries.  On Sunday, October 26, we will be smarter than today.